Bray, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

504
FXUS66 KEKA 081121
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Eureka CA
421 AM PDT Tue Apr 8 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Chance of light rain and gusty southwest winds are expected
for Del Norte and northern Humboldt Counties today and again on Thursday.
Otherwise, dry weather with a warming trend is forecast today through
Thursday. Cooler weather, blustery northerly winds and a chance for
showers and high mountain snow are forecast for Friday through Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A broad upper trough sitting over the Pacific Northwest
will lend favor to largely zonal flow across northern CA, sending
a steady stream of cloud cover into the region.

Another shortwave riding within the trough will sweep through today,
bringing another chance showers and gusty winds to the north coast.
HREF QPF probabilities for a tenth or more in 6 hours are around
30-60% this afternoon and evening, confined to Del Norte coast and
mountains. Light showers or sprinkles are possible in northern
and coastal Humboldt. The strongest southerly wind gusts will be
between 8AM and 12PM Tuesday. High resolution models have been
consistently forecasting 25 to 30 mph gusts developing along a
frontal boundary stemming from a strong surface low off the WA/OR
coast. 925mb winds approach 40 knots in the outer waters of the
OR/CA border, while higher winds stay mostly north of our CWA.
HREF probabilities for gusts >35 mph are around 50% for the far
northern Del Norte coast, steeply dropping off at 40 mph. The
greatest impacts will likely be minimal and once again confined to
Del Norte County, but breezy conditions with gusts 15 to 25 mph
are likely across the Humboldt coast and elevated ridges in the
coastal ranges north of Cape Mendocino.

Broad ridging will build on Wednesday as a trough digs over the
central Pacific. Warmer temperatures and clearer skies are expected,
especially interior valleys. NBM probabilities are trending a bit
lower, with about 30 to 50% for temperatures >75 degrees within
interior valleys, including Ukiah, Covelo and Hayfork. Mid to long
range models are favoring Thursday as the slightly warmer day,
potentially allowing highs to tick up into the upper 70`s and low
60`s along the coast. Otherwise, with high pressure over the
eastern Pacific, a strong marine layer is likely to form beneath
light NNW flow, dampening the high temperature forecast for
coastal areas.

Another weak shortwave will move through late Thursday into Friday,
very similar in nature to Tuesday - with minor precip amounts and
very low potential for impactful wind gusts across Del Norte and
northern Humboldt interior mountains.

Offshore trough will edge closer to the West Coast on Friday and
traverse across the PAC NW this weekend. Our brief warm up will
come to an abrupt end on Fri and Sat as an unseasonably cool
trough traverses across the Pac NW. SRN branch of the split will
probably form into a cut-off or a sheared out trough and meander
about well offshore to our SW. Prime impacts going into the weekend
will be cooler temperatures and a chance for frost and freezing
temps in the interior valleys, blustery N-NW winds, and maybe even
some light snow or dusting of snow in the mountains. DB

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions prevailed at all forecast terminals
overnight with mid and high level clouds moving across the area in
westerly flow aloft. Surface observations did indicate some fleeting
MVFR clouds decks, specifically at KCEC. Satellite imagery showed
lower clouds forming in all interior valleys overnight. MVFR
ceilings remain possible for UKI early this morning. A decaying
frontal system will generate gusty SW for KCEC today and perhaps
some light rain and MVFR conditions this afternoon. Lighter winds
and increasing boundary layer humidity will increase the chance
for stratus and IFR ceilings at KCEC (80% chance) and KACV (50%
chance) tonight according to the high resolutions ensemble. DB

&&

.MARINE...Seas have been right around 10 feet through the night and
trending downward. Surface high pressure has been build over the
area while surface trough and frontal boundary tracks NE toward
the Pac NW coast. Pressure gradients are forecast to tighten in
between the high and trough today. HREF mean and most all high
resolution models continue to indicate marginal advisory gusts to
25 kt for the northern inner waters today. Granted gusts to 30 kt
are probable around Pt St George. NWPS indicate steep waves building
to 5 to 6 ft today. It will be marginal for an advisory with westerly
on the decline today.

Otherwise, light to moderate wind regime expected to develop tonight
and Wed as high pressure builds and seas trend downward. Another
front will clip the area on Thu. Southerly winds increase on Thu,
but with a low sea state response.

Northerly winds and steep waves return on Friday and then
strengthen/build into the weekend as surface pressure gradients
tighten behind the front. Gale conditions will be possible Friday
into this weekend, primarily south of Cape Mendocino. DB

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
None.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 3 PM PDT
     this afternoon for PZZ450.

     Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM PDT this afternoon for
     PZZ470.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT early this morning for
     PZZ475.

&&

$$

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https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png